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Analyzing Post-COVID Commuting Preferences and Frequencies in California: A Hybrid Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value Approach - Commuting trips have historically accounted for a significant portion of total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States, representing 28% of the total VMT before the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a sharp decline in commuting during the pandemic, commuting VMT still made up 30% of total VMT in the U.S. Recent studies indicate that highway traffic in California has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, with commuting emerging as a major contributor in the post-pandemic era. Additionally, the rise of teleworking during the pandemic prompted many workers to move to car-dependent suburban areas, leading to increased commuting VMT as they resumed in-person work. This study examines commuting mode choices and frequencies, including telework, using survey data from 1,458 California residents in Fall 2023, offering insights into post-pandemic travel behavior of commuters. We developed a hybrid multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (HMDCEV) model to simultaneously analyze the impacts of latent attitudinal factors and both the direct and indirect effects of traditional observable explanatory variables on commuting choices. Results indicate that latent attitudes towards anti-car, luxury-lifestyle, pro-driving, car-captive, pro-biking, healthy-lifestyle, pro-environment, and car-utility significantly influence commuting preferences. Additionally, socio-demographic factors such as age, gender, race, Hispanic ethnicity, income, household composition, neighborhood type, and employment characteristics such as occupation type and commuting distance play crucial roles. The study also found that driving alone in a private vehicle is the most popular commuting mode with the lowest satiation effects, followed by telework and work-provided buses or shuttles, while ride-hailing is the least popular with the highest satiation effects. These insights can guide policymakers in promoting sustainable transportation by addressing both observed variables and latent attitudes that influence commuting decisions.
