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Assessing Affordability and Equity in Northern California Transit-Oriented Development: A Typology-Based Spatial Analysis - Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a globally recognized urban planning strategy integrating public transportation with high-density, mixed-use developments to foster walkable, accessible, and sustainable communities. While TODs offer numerous economic, environmental, and social benefits, a persistent challenge is housing affordability, as these desirable areas often experience rising property values and displacement pressures. Despite growing concerns over housing affordability, there remains a lack of a standardized, transparent methodology for quantifying and categorizing TODs based on their affordability and accessibility, which is crucial for planners, policymakers, and researchers aiming to create more equitable transit-integrated communities.
This study develops a TOD typology based on built environment characteristics, incorporating density, diversity, design, and the broader 5D framework within High-Quality Transit Areas (HQTAs) as well as Principal Component Analysis methodology. By systematically analyzing these variables, the study categorizes transit-served areas into three distinct types: TOD, Transit-Adjacent Development (TAD), and Hybrid Zones. TODs are defined as high-density, walkable neighborhoods seamlessly integrated with transit, reducing car dependency and promoting multimodal accessibility. In contrast, TADs are developments near transit infrastructure but lack strong connectivity, often leading to continued reliance on automobiles. Hybrid zones represent a transitional category that blends characteristics of both TOD and TAD, incorporating some transit-supportive elements while maintaining gaps in multimodal access, density, or land-use diversity.
Beyond categorization, this typology serves as a foundation for spatial investigation of the intersection of transit access, affordability, and equity, particularly concerning vulnerable populations. By analyzing socio-demographic factors such as income, race, educational attainment, vehicle ownership, and affordable housing availability, this study identifies spatial patterns that reveal disparities in access to equitable TOD environments. Methodologically, the study employs spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) and hot spot analysis to assess the distribution of affordability and vulnerability variables across the TOD typology. The findings will contribute to the limited body of literature on affordability within transit-oriented developments, offering insights for future planning strategies that balance transit integration with social equity.
